Investigating the relationship among investors' sentiments, monetary policies and Tehran ‎Stock Exchange returns

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate in Islamic Economics, Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Institute of Economic Affairs, Tehran, Iran

4 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

One of the most important factors in the financial field is to calculate the effectiveness of the stock market from ‎behavioral factors and macro-deterministic factors. Many studies believe that investors' emotions do not have a ‎significant impact on the stock market and macroeconomic factors, especially cash flows, are a very important ‎factor in the growth of the stock index. . In order to respond to these ‎assumptions, this study has used the MS-VAR method in the period of 1389-1402 in the form of seasonal data. ‎The results of this study indicate that when there was optimism among investors and the growth of liquidity was ‎high, prosperity prevailed in the stock market. During this period, the growth of liquidity has been very positive ‎and investors' sentiments have led to a decrease in the return of the stock market (due to the herd effect). On the ‎other hand, when pessimism prevailed in the market, stagnation prevailed in the stock market even despite the ‎growth of positive liquidity. In this period, emotions do not have a significant impact on the stock market, and the ‎growth of liquidity also leads to the deepening of the stock market stagnation‏.‏

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این مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری نویسنده اول است.

 

Economic Policies and Research
Volume 4, Issue 4 - Serial Number 16
December 2025
Pages 33-60

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History

  • Receive Date: 12 October 2024
  • Revise Date: 07 March 2025
  • Accept Date: 09 March 2025
  • Publish Date: 22 December 2025

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