The Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Human Capital in Export Diversification in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 M.A. Student in Theoretical Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

10.22034/jepr.2026.145625.1352

Abstract

This study examines the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and human capital in export concentration in Iran over the period 1995–2023. Export concentration is measured using the normalized Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), where lower values indicate greater export diversification. To capture the multidimensional nature of digital development, a composite ICT index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The long-run relationships among variables are estimated using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method, controlling for trade openness (log), industrial value added, and natural resource rents. Empirical results indicate that ICT development has a statistically significant negative effect on export concentration and contributes to reducing reliance on a narrow range of export products. Human capital also has a significant negative effect on export concentration and plays an important role in explaining changes in export structure. In addition, it acts alongside ICT in reducing export concentration. Trade openness and industrial value added both contribute to lower export concentration, although their effects are relatively smaller. In contrast, natural resource rents significantly increase export concentration, providing evidence consistent with the resource curse hypothesis. Overall, the findings suggest that moving toward a more diversified export structure requires simultaneous strengthening of digital infrastructure and human capital, along with reducing dependence on natural resources.

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Main Subjects

یادداشت

این مقاله مستخرج از پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد نویسنده اول است.

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Journal of Economic Policies and Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 16 May 2026

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  • Receive Date: 01 January 2001
  • Revise Date: 10 May 2026
  • Accept Date: 16 May 2026
  • Publish Date: 16 May 2026

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