نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
2 استادیار علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
https://doi.org/10.34785/J025.2022.026
چکیده
هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر جهانی‌شدن بر صنعتی‌شدن در ایران طی بازه زمانی 1357 تا 1399 با استفاده از مدل خود رگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای قابل تغییر طی زمان (TVP-VAR) است. برای رسیدن به هدف پژوهش، از شاخص صنعتی‌سازی و شاخص جهانی‌شدن اقتصادی استفاده شده است. از طرف دیگر، از متغیرهای سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، اندازه دولت و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه به‌عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که جهانی‌شدن اقتصادی دارای تأثیر بسیار مثبت بر صنعتی‌سازی در ایران است. درنتیجه به سیاست-گذاران کلان کشوری پیشنهاد می‌گردد که کاهش تنش‌های بین‌المللی ایران با سایر کشورهای جهان را جهت افزایش جهانی‌شدن، افزایش واردات تکنولوژی‌های جدید و افزایش صنعتی‌سازی در دستور کار قرار دهند. از طرف دیگر، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی دارای تأثیر بسیار مثبت بر شاخص صنعتی‌شدن در ایران است. تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه نیز دارای تأثیر مثبت اما با شدت کمتر بر شاخص صنعتی‌شدن است. اندازه دولت نیز دارای تأثیر بسیار منفی بر صنعتی‌شدن در ایران است. درنتیجه، به سیاست‌گذاران پیشنهاد می‌گردد که جهانی‌شدن را به‌عنوان یک عامل مهم در افزایش صنعتی-سازی در ایران در نظر گیرند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
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