نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران .
چکیده
مخارج عمومی دولت در طول سال‌ها به‌سرعت رشد کرده است که گمان می‌رود بر عملکرد مالی کشور تأثیر بسزایی داشته باشد. به دلیل وجود پیامدهایی ناشی از گسترش مخارج دولت بر اقتصاد، نیاز به درک عواملی که سبب رشد اندازه مخارج دولت هستند، ضروری است. بدین منظور، این مطالعه از یک نسخه تغییریافته از قانون واگنر با ترکیب متغیرهای جدیدی مانند درآمد نفتی، باز بودن تجارت، بدهی عمومی، نرخ ارز، تولید داخلی، مالیات و تورم استفاده می‌کند تا تأثیر آن‌ها بر اندازه مخارج دولت در ایران را با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی بین سال‌های 1358 تا 1398 و با روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه توزیعی (ARDL)، بررسی کند. یافته‌های این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که درآمد نفت، تولید ناخالص داخلی، جمعیت، باز بودن تجارت، مالیات، تورم و بدهی عمومی عوامل مهم تعیین‌کننده اندازه مخارج دولت هستند. نتایج کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تائید کننده قانون واگنر در ایران است و نشان می‌دهد که تلاش برای توسعه و تنوع، دولت را مجبور کرده است با احداث زیرساخت‌های عمومی (راه‌آهن، برق و غیره) باعث گسترش هزینه‌های عمومی شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
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