نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

نرخ مثبت شهرنشینی در دهه‌های اخیر، موقعیت ویژه آن در بهره مندی از منابع طبیعی و اجرای چندین برنامه توسعه صنعتی از ویژگی‌های اقتصاد ایران است که بررسی رابطه متقابل بین آن‌‌ها در این پژوهش مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل خودرگرسیون برداری برای اقتصاد ایران طی سال‌های 1352 تا 1400 نشان می‌دهد اولا رشد شهرنشینی نسبت به شوک‌های درآمدهای حاصل از منابع طبیعی و صنعتی شدن واکنش مثبت نشان می دهد که بر اساس آن پبش‌بینی می‌شود شوک درآمدهای حاصل از منابع طبیعی و صنعتی شدن از کانال گسترش کالاها و خدمات شهری و فراهم کردن فرصت‌های شغلی در مراکز صنعتی، میزان جمعیت شهرنشین را افزایش خواهد داد که این پدیده می‌تواند هزینه‌هایی مثل آلودگی، حاشیه نشینی و رشد فعالیت‌های غیرقانونی بر جامعه تحمیل کند. ثانیا واکنش صنعتی‌شدن نسبت به شوک درآمدهای حاصل از منابع طبیعی منفی است که نشان دهنده برقراری فرضیه نفرین منابع است. ثالثاً: اثر متغیرهای سیاسی مثل شوک جنگ بر تحولات صنعتی نسبت به بخش کشاورزی قابل ملاحظه پبش‌بینی می‌شود. یافته‌های مقاله، نقش مدیریت درست درآمد حاصل از منابع طبیعی در کنترل نرخ شهرنشینی و فراهم کردن شرایط مناسب برای رشد پایدار در بخش صنعت را نمایان می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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