نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران
چکیده
ناآرامی‌های سیاسی می‌تواند توانایی دولت را برای اجرای طرح‌های کاهش تخریب محیط‌زیست مختل کند. از طرفی ممکن است که با افزایش فعالیت‌های اقتصادی ناشی از بهبود ثبات سیاسی زمینه‌ی بهره‌برداری از منابع و به‌دنبال آن فشار بر محیط‌زیست ایجاد شود. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر نامتقارن و غیرخطی شاخص ریسک سیاسی بر شاخص کیفیت محیط‌زیست در ایران طی دوره زمانی 2020-1990 می‌باشد. به این منظور از رویکرد خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی چند آستانه‌ای نامتقارن (MTANARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآوردگر MATNARDL حاکی از آنست که در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت شوک‌های مثبت شاخص ریسک سیاسی در دو مقیاس کوچک (کوانتایل کمتر از آستانه τ30) و متوسط (کوانتایل بین آستانه‌های τ30 و τ70)، اثر مثبت و معناداری بر ردپای اکولوژیکی داشته‌اند؛ در حالی‌که این شوک‌ها در مقیاس بزرگ (کوانتایل بیشتر از آستانه τ70) اثر منفی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی دارند. بر این اساس می‌توان گفت که اثر ریسک سیاسی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در ایران، نامتقارن است و تنها با افزایش چشم‌گیر (بزرگ) در ثبات سیاسی می‌توانیم شاهد کاهش ردپای اکولوژیکی و بهبود کیفیت محیط‌زیست در کشور باشیم.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
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