سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی

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بررسی تأثیر خصوصی‌سازی بر رفاه اجتماعی در ایران: رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال ملایم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

ارتقاء سطح رفاه اجتماعی از اهداف کلان هر کشوری است. عوامل متنوعی می‌تواند رفاه اجتماعی را تحت تأثیر قراردهد و خصوصی‌سازی یکی از این عوامل به‌شمار می‌رود. این مطالعه با استفاده از رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال ملایم، اثر خصوصی‌سازی بر رفاه اجتماعی در ایران براساس شاخص رفاه اجتماعی آمارتیا سن برای دوره زمانی 1370 تا 1401 بررسی کرده است. متغیرهای کنترلی پژوهش شامل باز بودن تجاری، صنعتی‌شدن، مصرف انرژی و انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن است. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش مدل بهینه، غیرخطی با 2 رژیم بوده و انتقال از رژیم 1 به رژیم 2 بسیار ملایم اتفاق افتاده ‌است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که خصوصی‌سازی قبل از حد آستانه با مقدار 2476.16 برای سالهای 1370 تا قبل از 1382، دارای اثر مثبت و معنی‏دار بر شاخص رفاه اجتماعی و بعد از عبور از حد آستانه برای سالهای 1382 به بعد، از اثر مثبت کاسته شده است و به تدریج به اثر منفی تغییر یافته است. همچنین، باز بودن تجاری بر رفاه اجتماعی، در رژیم اول اثر معنی‌داری نداشته ولی در رژیم دوم دارای اثرمنفی و معنی‌داراست. متغیرهای صنعتی شدن و مصرف انرژی در رژیم اول اثر منفی و معنی دار داشته‌اند و در رژیم دوم دارای اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بوده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی
دوره 3، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 9
خرداد 1403
صفحه 32-61
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هم رسانی
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