سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی

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بررسی اثرات بدهی‌های دولت بر شاخص فقر در ایران؛ با رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال ملایم (STR)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی، وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی.

2 عضو هیات علمی پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی، وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی.

چکیده

فقر از جمله متغیرهایی است که تحت تأثیر کسری بودجه و بدهی دولت قرار دارد. اثرات بدهی‌های دولتی بر فقر را می‌توان به دو بخش اولیه و ثانویه تفکیک کرد. اثرات اولیه بدهی‌های دولتی، به علل به وجود آمدن آنها و اثرات ثانویه بدهی‌های دولتی به روش‌های تأمین مالی آنها بستگی دارد. بر این اساس، در مطالعه حاضر تلاش خواهد شد به بررسی این اثرگذاری در قالب روش‌های غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم طی دوره زمانی 1370 تا 1401 برای اقتصاد ایران پرداخته شود. نتایج برآوردها نشان داد، اثرات اولیه بدهی‌های دولت بر متغیر شاخص فقر منفی و معنادار شده، ولی اثرات ثانویه مثبت و معنادار بوده است، لذا برآیند کل نشان داد که افزایش بدهی‌های دولت منجر به افزایش 801/2 درصدی در فقر خواهد شد. نرخ تورم و رشد جمعیت در هر دو رژیم دارای اثرات مثبت و معناداری بر فقر بودند. همچنین اثرات متغیرهای حکمرانی، توسعه انسانی و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی در رژیم اول بر فقر مثبت بوده ولی در رژیم دوم این اثرات منفی و کاهش‌دهنده فقر بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی
دوره 3، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 9
خرداد 1403
صفحه 62-89
فایل ها
هم رسانی
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