سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی

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اثر سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی بر مصرف و سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی در ایران: بررسی اثرات جایگزینی و مکملی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی جهاددانشگاهی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی به تغییرات صلاحدیدی مالیات، مخارج و یا دیگر فعالیت‌های مالی توسط دولت در پاسخ به رویدادهای اقتصادی یا تغییر در شرایط اقتصادی اشاره دارد. اتخاذ این سیاست‌ درصورتی‌که در راستای ثبات نوسانات نباشد، می‌تواند آثار زیان باری بر متغیرهای اقتصادی برجا گذارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثرات سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی بر مصرف و سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی در ایران است. ازاین‌رو ابتدا تابع واکنش مالی در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1357 الی 1401 طبق الگوی فتاز و میهو (2003 و 2006) با استفاده از رویکرد2SLS-IV برآورد گشته و سپس از طریق این تابع، سیاست‌های مالی صلاحدیدی استخراج و بررسی می‌گردد. بر اساس تابع واکنش مالی، سیاست مالی در ایران طی دوره موردبررسی رفتار موافق چرخه‌ای دارد‌. همچنین با استخراج سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی از تابع واکنش مالی و بررسی اثرات آن با استفاده از رویکرد GMM، وجود اثر برون‌رانی یا جایگزینی (Crowding-out) در مصرف و سرمایه‌گذاری تأیید گردیده است. به‌طوری‌که بزرگی اثرات مخرب برون‌رانی در سرمایه‌گذاری بیشتر از مصرف به‌دست‌آمده است. به‌عبارت‌دیگر، اتخاذ سیاست مالی صلاحدیدی در ایران موجب رانده‌شده بخش خصوصی از سرمایه‌گذاری در این بخش و نیز کاهش مصرف خانوار شده و بنابراین می‌تواند از این طریق آثار مخربی بر رشد اقتصادی برجا گذارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی
دوره 3، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 10
شهریور 1403
صفحه 112-147
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