اثر شوک‌‌های درآمد مالیات‌های غیرمستقیم بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران با رویکرد برآورد ضریب فزاینده زمان متغیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد سلماس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سلماس، ایران

چکیده

سیاست‌های مالی در طول زمان ثابت نبوده و متغیر است. این یافته‌ها حاکی از این هستند که ضریب فزاینده تحت تأثیر عوامل متعددی قرار دارد و با تغییر این عوامل، مقدار ضریب فزاینده نیز تغییر می‌کند. در مطالعه حاضر از مدل (الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای متغیر در زمان و رویکرد عامل افزوده (TVP-FAVAR) به‌عنوان ابزاری قوی برای برآورد پاسخ یک متغیر به شوک‌های وارده از سوی سایر متغیرها در طول زمان، استفاده شده است. با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی دوره زمانی 1372 تا 1399، ضریب فزاینده رشد مالیات بر واردات و رشد مالیات بر کالاها و خدمات در ایران به‌صورت زمان‌متغیر برآورد شد. برآوردها نشان می‌دهند که ضریب فزاینده آنی رشد مالیات بر کالاها و خدمات بزرگتر از ضریب فزاینده رشد مالیات بر واردات است. این بدان معناست که اثر کوتاه‌مدت این نوع مالیات بر تولید و مصرف بیشتر است. از سویی، ضریب فزاینده تجمعی مالیات بر واردات بزرگتر از مالیات بر کالاها و خدمات می باشد که نشان می‌دهد در طول زمان، مالیات بر واردات تأثیر تجمعی بیشتری بر اقتصاد دارد. دلیل این یافته می‌تواند وابستگی بیشتر اقتصاد به واردات و تأثیرات بلندمدت نوسانات تجارت خارجی باشد که به تدریج بر اقتصاد تأثیر می‌گذارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 19 مرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 13 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 13 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1404

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