تحلیلی متقارن و نامتقارن از تاثیر اندازه دولت بر انگیزه‌ ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی یک عنصر اساسی برای توسعه اقتصادی، به ویژه برای اقتصادهای در حال توسعه و نوظهور است. مخارج عمومی یک ابزار اقتصادی بسیار مهم دولت است. در نتیجه، درک اثرات اندازه دولت بر جریان و انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی جهت ارتقای رشد اقتصادی حیاتی است. در پژوهش حاضر ابتدا شاخص انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی با استفاده از روش میمیک محاسبه و سپس نرمالایز شد. سپس با بهره از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی خطی و غیرخطی به تبیین اثر متقارن و نامتقارن اندازه دولت بر انگیزه ورود سرمایه خارجی بازه زمانی ۱۳۵۲ تا ۱۴۰۱ پرداخته شد. نتایج حاصل از محاسبه شاخص انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی بیانگر آن است پس از جنگ تا برنامه دوم روندی نزولی داشته و پس از آن روندی نوسانی به خود گرفته است. بیشترین و کمترین میانگین انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی به ترتیب مربوط به زیردوره‌های برنامه چهارم و برنامه دوم بوده است. نتایج برآوردها در بلندمدت نشان می‎دهد افزایش‌ها و کاهش‌ها در اندازه دولت، با اثری مستقیم (مثبت) بر انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی همراه است. به نحوی‌که اثر مستقیم افزایش‌ها در اندازه دولت بر انگیزه ورود سرمایه‌گذاری‌گذاری خارجی بزرگتر از اثرکاهش‌ها در آن می‌باشد که تاییدی بر وجود اثر نامتقارن اندازه دولت ...

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موضوعات

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 26 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 28 دی 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 28 دی 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1404

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