تحلیل تأثیر نرخ ارز و اهرم مالی بر شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌ها: شواهد تجربی از ایران

رضاقلی زاده, مهدیه

doi:10.22034/jepr.2025.142795.1218

تحلیل تأثیر نرخ ارز و اهرم مالی بر شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌ها: شواهد تجربی از ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مهدیه رضاقلی زاده

دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

10.22034/jepr.2025.142795.1218

چکیده

افزایش ورشکستگی‌های تجاری پس از بحران مالی 2008 اهمیت بررسی شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌ها و تأثیرپذیری آن از عوامل اقتصادی را برجسته کرده است. در این پژوهش، تأثیر نرخ ارز و اهرم مالی بر شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌های گروه خودرو و ساخت قطعات در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دوره 1390 تا 1401 بررسی شده است. علاوه بر این، با توجه به نقش نرخ ارز در تغییر ساختار مالی شرکت‌ها، اثر تعاملی آن با اهرم مالی نیز مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. برای سنجش شکنندگی مالی، از شاخص Z-Score آلتمن استفاده شده و روابط بین متغیرها با استفاده از تکنیک گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته دومرحله‌ای برآورد شده است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر این است که در دوره مورد بررسی، افزایش اهرم مالی و نوسانات نرخ ارز به‌طور معناداری به افزایش شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌ها منجر شده است. اثر تعاملی اهرم مالی و نرخ ارز نشان می‌دهد که افزایش اهرم مالی، در ترکیب با نوسانات نرخ ارز، تأثیر منفی بیشتری بر شکنندگی مالی شرکت‌ها دارد و این اثر در شرایطی که شرکت‌ها با اهرم مالی بالا مواجه هستند، تشدید می‌شود. یافته‌ها همچنین حاکی از آن است که تاریخچه مالی شرکت‌ها نیز بر شکنندگی مالی آن‌ها تأثیرگذار است و مشکلات مالی گذشته می‌تواند پیش‌بینی‌کننده بحران‌های مالی آینده باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

اقتصاد مالی

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