تاب‌آوری متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست‌محیطی در شرایط مواجهه با تکانه ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی (CBDC)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی، به‌عنوان شکل سوم پول بانک مرکزی، مزایا و تهدیدهای بالقوه‌ای برای عملکرد اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست‌محیطی به همراه دارد. نظر به اهمیت این موضوع، انگیزه مطالعه حاضر طراحی یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی باهدف بررسی تاب‌آوری متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد و کیفیت زیست‌محیطی در مواجهه با تکانه انتشار ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی است. به این منظور، پس از مقداردهی پارامترها بر اساس اطلاعات فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی 1401:02- 1383:01، در سناریوهای مختلف و باتوجه‌به درجه چسبندگی قیمت‌ها، شبیه‏سازی الگو انجام شده است. نتایج نشان داد که مصرف، تولید غیرنفتی و تولید کل در پاسخ به تکانه انتشار ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی افزایش می‌یابند؛ اما تورم با وقفه واکنش نشان می‌دهد. به دلیل افزایش تولید، کیفیت زیست‌محیطی کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر این، مقایسه نتایج حاصل از تغییر در درجه چسبندگی اقتصاد، نشان می‌دهد که پویایی تمامی متغیرها در پاسخ به تکانه انتشار ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی تغییر نکرده است و فقط شدت آن در سناریو عدم وجود چسبندگی قیمت‌ها، شدیدتر است؛ بنابراین، در یک اقتصاد باوجود چسبندگی قیمت‌ها، تاب‌آوری متغیرهای تولید، تورم، مصرف و کیفیت زیست‌محیطی در برابر تکانه انتشار ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی بیشتر است. توصیه می‌شود بانک مرکزی با انتشار ارز دیجیتال بانک مرکزی، ضمن تحریک سمت تقاضای اقتصاد (مصرف)، شرایط افزایش تولید را فراهم نماید.

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سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی
دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 17
فروردین 1405
صفحه 195-217

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 24 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 31 فروردین 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 17 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 فروردین 1405

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