مدل گرانشی کارایی تجارت خارجی ایران با کشورهای منطقه منا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، ایران

2 دکتری حسابداری، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش بررسی کارایی تجارت خارجی ایران با کشورهای منطقه منا (MENA) با استفاده از مدل گرانشی تجارت در قالب تابع مرزی تصادفی در بازه زمانی 2010-2022 است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل گرانشی نشان می‌دهد که ایران تمایل بیشتری به تجارت با کشورهای ثروتمند و با اقتصاد بزرگ‌تر (عراق، کویت، سوریه و امارات) دارد. در مقابل، فاصله جغرافیایی تأثیر منفی بر جریان‌های تجاری دارد؛ به صورتی که حجم تجارت به دلیل هزینه‌های بالای حمل و نقل و چالش‌های لجستیکی با افزایش مسافت کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر این، کشورهای حوزه خلیج فارس (مانند کویت، امارات و عمان) حجم مبادلات بیشتری با ایران دارند که نشان می‌دهد نزدیکی جغرافیایی نه تنها حمل و نقل را تسهیل می‌کند بلکه روابط اقتصادی قوی‌تری را نیز تقویت می‌نماید. همچنین، کارایی تجارت خارجی ایران با کشورهایی که دارای مرز مشترک با آن هستند، بیشتر است؛ در مقابل، ایران نتوانسته است در این زمینه به خوبی از دسترسی به دریا با کشورهای منطقه منا (MENA) بهره‌ بگیرد. سایر نتایج نشان می‌دهد که ناکارآمدی‌های داخلی تأثیر بیشتری بر کارایی تجارت خارجی ایران دارند؛ به صورتی که حدود 96/5 درصد از تغییرات در کارایی تجارت ایران ناشی از ناکارآمدی‌های داخلی و سوءمدیریت است، در حالی که تنها 3/5 درصد به خطاهای تصادفی مربوط می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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