برآورد تأثیر مصارف پایه پولی بر نرخ تورم درکوتاه‌ مدت و بلند مدت در ایران

نوع مقاله : استخراج از پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

پایه پولی به‌عنوان یکی از ابزارهای اصلی سیاست پولی، نقش حیاتی در تنظیم نقدینگی و کنترل تورم ایفا می‌کند. اجزای اصلی آن شامل اسکناس و مسکوک در جریان و ذخایر بانک‌های تجاری نزد بانک مرکزی است. این اجزا با تأثیر مستقیم بر نقدینگی، بر سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها و ثبات اقتصادی اثر می‌گذارند. تورم که به معنای افزایش مداوم و عمومی قیمت‌ها است، به‌طور قابل‌توجهی به مدیریت پایه پولی وابسته می باشد. سیاست‌های مؤثر در این حوزه می‌توانند در حفظ تعادل اقتصادی نقش‌آفرین باشند. این پژوهش به بررسی اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت اجزای مصارف پایه پولی بر تورم در ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۷۰ تا ۱۴۰۲ با استفاده از مدل خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) می‌پردازد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در کوتاه‌مدت، اسکناس و مسکوک در جریان تأثیر کاهنده و معناداری بر تورم دارد، اما ذخایر بانک‌ها نزد بانک مرکزی و تولید ناخالص داخلی اثر معناداری ندارند. دربلندمدت، هر دو متغیر اسکناس و ذخایر بانکی تأثیر کاهنده و معناداری بر تورم دارند، در حالی که تولید ناخالص داخلی از تأثیر غیرمعنادار به اثر مثبت و معنادار تغییر کرده است. این نتایج به اهمیت مدیریت صحیح پایه پولی و رشد اقتصادی در کنترل تورم و ایجاد ثبات اقتصادی اشاره دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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