نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد محیط زیست، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه دریانوردی و علوم دریایی چابهار، چابهار، ایران

2 استادیار علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه دریانوردی و علوم دریایی چابهار، چابهار، ایران

3 دکتری علوم اقتصادی، کارمند دارایی، استان آذربایجان شرقی، ایران

https://doi.org/10.34785/J025.2022.015

چکیده

باتوجه به اهمیت نفت در کشورهای صادرکننده، نوسانات قیمت نفت علاوه بر تاثیرگذاری بر اقتصاد کشورهای واردکننده، بزرگ­ترین منبع اختلال در اقتصاد و به­ خصوص در بیکاری کشورهای وابسته به نفت محسوب می‌شود. از این ­رو در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات تکانه‌های قیمت نفت بر بیکاری بخشی در ایران در بازه زمانی 1998 تا 2019 با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری پرداخت­ها است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که نمودار واکنش توابع بیکاری بخش کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات نسبت به شوک قیمت نفت طی دوره‌های مختلف متفاوت بوده و در بعضی دوره‌ها بهبود و در بعضی دوره‌ها کاهش یافته ­است.هم­چنین با استناد به جدول‌های تجزیه واریانس می‌توان اذعان نمود که تغییرات عمده توابع بیکاری بخش‌های کشاورزی و صنعت مربوط به تغییرات قیمت نفت بوده و تغییرات بیکاری بخش خدمات نیز ناشی از تغییرات نرخ بهره بوده ­است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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