نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد پولی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد اسلامی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

https://doi.org/10.34785/J025.2022.018

چکیده

کشف بخش­های کلیدی اقتصاد، با توجه به ظرفیت­ها و استعدادهای هر منطقه همواره مد نظر اقتصاددانان بوده ­است، چیزی که در ادبیات اقتصادی به مزیت نسبی تعبیر می­شود. در پژوهش حاضر رتبه ­بندی سرمایه‌گذاری با استفاده از جدول داده- ستانده و سنجش اثرگذاری پیوندهای پسین و پیشین بخش‌های مختلف تعیین‌شده است. بدین منظور با استفاده از جدول داده- ستانده سال 1396 (بهنگام شده از جدول 1390 مرکز آمار ایران) و روش‌های نوین تعیین بخش­ کلیدی، اولویت سرمایه‌گذاری در کشور شناسایی شد. روش حذف فرضی نشان داد بخش‌های زراعت و باغداری، ساخت محصولات­ غذایی و ساخت­ مواد و فرآورده‌های شیمیایی دارای بالاترین پیوندهای پسین و پیشین هستند و اهمیت بالاتری دارند. در ادامه با استفاده از روش زمینه نفوذ مشخص شد که ساخت محصولات غذایی با مقدار 6416/252 دارای بیشترین زمینه نفوذ است و در اولویت سرمایه‌گذاری است و سرمایه‌گذاری بیشتر در این بخش، رشد بیشتری را در تولید موجب می‌شود. پس‌ از آن بخش ساخت مواد و فرآورده‌های شیمیایی با مقدار 4262/169 در اولویت دوم و سپس بخش زراعت و باغداری با مقدار 8038/150 در اولویت سوم سرمایه‌گذاری قرار دارد، بنابراین توصیه می­شود به منظور استفاده از پتانسیل­ها و ظرفیت­های در بخش­های اقتصادی در بخش محصولات غذایی و آموزش به عنوان بخش کلیدی سرمایه­ گذاری شود و سپس با توجه به مزیت نسبی بخش زراعت و باغداری سرمایه­گذاری در این بخش نیز اجتناب ­ناپذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

Alwandizadeh, A., Pahlavani, M., & Seyed Al-Hosseini, S. (2014). Ranking of Industrial Investment in Sistan and Baluchistan Province. Journal of Public Management Research, 8(29), 107-129. (In Persian)
Asian Development Bank. (2016). Tajikistan: Promoting Export Diversification and Growth. Institute for Statistics.
Banoui, A., Mamqani, M., & Mohagheghi, M. (2016). Identification of key sectors based on traditional and modern approaches of demand and supply sides of the economy. Economic Research Quarterly, 7(1), 3-8. (In Persian)
Barala, S., Chhetrib, B., Baralc. H., & Vacika, H. (2019). Investments in different taxonomies of goods: What should Nepal's community forest user groups prioritize. Forest Policy and Economics, 100(7), 24-32.
Cella, G. (1984). The Input‐Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 46(1), 73-84.
Cochrane, S. G. (1990). Input-Output Linkages in a Frontier Region of Indonesia. The WEFA Group, 13, 183-203.
Danciu, A. R. (2012). The Ranking of the Romanian Regions Based on the Potential to Attract FDI. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62(2), 45-62.
Dietzenbacher, E. (1992). The measurement of interindustry linkages: key sectors in the Netherlands. Economic Modelling, 9(4), 419-437.
Falahati, A., & Ahmadian, T. (2013). Economic review and ranking of industrial investment in Kermanshah province. Economic and Regional Development Research, 18(2). (In Persian)
Farmani, M. (2017). Determining investment opportunities and prioritizing economic activities in Fars province using the numerical taxonomy method. Economic Modeling Quarterly, Economic Affairs and Finance, 18(5), 131-105. (In Persian)
Giammetti, R., Russo, A., & Gallegati, M. (2020). Key sectors in input–output production networks: An application to Brexit. The World Economy, 43(4), 840-870.
Hausmann, R., Klinger, B., & Wagne, R. (2008). Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice: A ‘Mindbook’. Center for International Development at Harvard University, 177.
Hausmann, R., Roderick, D., & Velasco, A. (2005). Growth Diagnostics. Growth lab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growth-diagnostics.
Heimler, A. (1991). Linkages and Vertical Integration in the Chinese Economy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73(2), 261-267.
Hekmat, B., & Rahmati, D. (2009). Determining investment priorities in the economic sectors of Ilam province using the data-output table of the province using the GRIT method. Agricultural Economics and Development, 17(67). (In Persian)
Jahangard, E. (2013). Prioritizing investment in Iran's economic activities considering environmental pollution. Majlis and Strategy, 21(80), 138-168. (In Persian)
Jahangard, E., & SadatHosseini, N. (2012). Identifying key sectors of Iran's economy based on random data-output analysis. Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, 11, 23-46. (In Persian)
Jahangerd, E. (2013). Data analysis - technology output - planning and development. Tehran: Mehraban Book. (In Persian)
Krishna, K., & Perez, C. A. (2005). Unbalanced Growth. Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(3), 832-851.
Lenzen, M. (2003). Environmentally Important Paths, Linkages and Key Sectors in the Australian Economy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14(1), 1-34.
Lu, C., & Yang, C. (2007). An Evaluation of the Investment in International Logistics Zones: A Taiwanese Manufacturer's Perspective. International Journal of Production Economics, 107, 67-78.
Mahdavi, A., & Majderezaee, H. (2012). The Fundamental Impediments of Economic Growth in Iran: An H-R-V Model. Iranian Economic Review, 16(31). (In Persian)
Majlis Research Center. (2014). The nature of Iran's economic sectors, identification of key sectors. Iran's Economic Studies Office (Macroeconomics and Modeling Department). (In Persian)
Meller, P., & Marfan, M. (1981). Small and Large Industry: Employment Generation, Linkages, and Key Sectors. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 29(2), 263-274.
Milana, C. (1985). Direct and Indirect Requirements for Gross Output in Input-Output Systems. Metroeconomica, 37(3), 283-292.
Miller, E., & Lahr, M. (2001). Taxonomy of Extractions. Regional Science Perspectives in Economic Analysis. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 249, 407-441.
Miller, R., & Blair, P. (1985). Input Output Analysis – Foundations & Extensions. Prentice-Hall Inc.
Mirjalili, S., Mirdehghan, S., Dehghan Khavari, S., & Valizadeh, R. (2009). Ranking and determining the relative advantage of industrial activities in Yazd province using the combined method of factor analysis and numerical taxonomy. Economic Policy Quarterly, 1(2). (In Persian)
Nasrollahi, Z., & Zarei, M. (2016). Prioritization of industrial activities in Yazd province with an emphasis on the importance of water resources: integration of data models and hierarchical analysis process. Iran Economic Research, 22(71). (In Persian)
Nasrullahi, K., Akbari, N., & Ahmadi, A. (2012). Determining the investment rating of the industry sector in order to create a free trade zone in Bushehr province. Ekhtaz Khadati Magazine, 9(4), 21-44. (In Persian)
Nazari, F., & Mohsen, H. (2017). Determining the ranking of investment in Khuzestan province using the data-output table of the province using the GRIT method. Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly, 6(22), 7-45. (In Persian)
Norouzi, A. (2016). Prioritization of Economic Sectors Based on Data Table - Reference: Case Studies of Gilan Province. Trend Magazine, 54(55). (In Persian)
Nowrozi, A. (2008). Prioritization of economic sectors based on the data-output table of the study case of Gilan Province. Trend Magazine, 53, 150-183. (In Persian)
Paelinck, J., De Caevel, J., & Degueldre, J. (1965). Analyse Quantitative de Certains Phénomènes du Développement Régional Polarisé: Essai de Simulation Statique D’itinéraires de Propagation. Bibliotheque de l’Institut de Science Économique, 7, 341-387.
Pahlavani, M., Mirjalili, S., & Akbarzadeh, A. (2017). Development Management and Economic Growth in Iran; An analysis of growth bottlenecks with foundation data approach. Public Management Quarterly, 11(42), 247-270. (In Persian)
Pahlavani, M., Mirjalili, S., & Akbarzadeh, A. (2018). The impact of financing on the growth of selected MENA countries, strategic and macro policies. Online publication. (In Persian)
Peror, M., Hassanvand, D., Khorsand, M., & Tarhami, F. (2019). Analysis of increasing coefficients of production, spillover, feedback effects and identification of leading sectors in the data-output model of two regions (case study: Iran's oil-rich regions and other national economies). Economic Research and Policy Quarterly, 28(94), 165-204. (In Persian)
Rajabi, S. (2018). Measuring the effectiveness of energy from the supply side impulses of Iran's economic sectors and providing a solution to strengthen energy sub-sectors. Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University (AS), Master's Thesis. (In Persian)
Rasmussen, P. N. (1956). Studies in Inter-Sectoral Relations. North Holland Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Sadeghi Shabhani, M., Akbarzadeh, M., & Madah, M. (2018). Investigating the effects of income tax on the income of legal entities. (In Persian)
Satarifar, M. (2001). An income on capital and development. Tehran: Allameh Tabatabai University Press, first edition. (In Persian)
Schultz, S. (1977). Approaches to Identifying Key Sectors Empirically by Means of Input-Output Analysis. Journal of Development Studies, 14(1), 77-96.
Seung, C. K. (2020). Key sector analysis for a subnational region with leakages. The Annals of Regional Science, 1-26.
Strassert, G. (1968). Zur Bestimmung strategischer Sektoren mit Hilfe von InputOutput-Modellen. Jahrbücher für National konomie und Statistik, 182(3), 211-215.
Tausli, S., & Mohajeri, P. (2016). Evaluating the position of the health sector in Iran's economy using partial hypothetical elimination method. Scientific Quarterly of Economic Growth and Development Research, 8(29), 77-96. (In Persian)
Tawfiq, F. (2008). Data-output analysis in Iran and its applications in measurement, forecasting and planning. Society and Economy Publications. (In Persian)
Vartabian, H. (2017). An economic science, many prescriptions. Tehran: Deputy of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. (In Persian)
Vasilyev, D. (2019). Reinvigorating Growth in Belize, International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper: WP/19/24.