تأثیر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و وفور منابع طبیعی بر عملکرد تحریم مالی در کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه

خیل کردی, فاطمه; سعادت, رحمان; مداح, مجید

doi:10.22034/jepr.2025.142585.1208

تأثیر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و وفور منابع طبیعی بر عملکرد تحریم مالی در کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه

نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بین الملل، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

² دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

³ استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

10.22034/jepr.2025.142585.1208

چکیده

تحریم‌ها عملکرد اقتصادی کشورهای هدف را تحت تأثیرات قرار می‌دهند. در این ارتباط تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و بهره‌مندی کشورهای تحت تحریم از منابع طبیعی می‌تواند اثر تحریم‌ها را تعدیل کنند. در این تحقیق تأثیر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و وفور منابع طبیعی بر عملکرد تحریم مالی در 70 کشور منتخب طی بازه زمانی 2022-1970 با رویکرد پانل لاجیت - پروبیت مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل‌های مختلف نشان می‌دهد اولاً تاب‌آوری اقتصادی دارای اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر عملکرد تحریم مالی است. بر این اساس کشورهای ‌که توانایی‌ اقتصادی بیشتری دارند با احتمال بیشتری قادر به شکست اثرات منفی تحریم مالی هستند. ثانیاً وفور منابع طبیعی دارای اثرات مثبت و معنی‌دار بر عملکرد تحریم مالی است. ثالثاً اثر متقابل تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و وفور منابع طبیعی بر عملکرد تحریم مثبت است بطوریکه وفور منابع طبیعی باعث می‌شود که اثر منفی (تقلیل‌دهنده) تاب‌آوری بر عملکرد تحریم کاهش پیدا ‌کند. در چهارچوب نتایج می‌توان پیش‌بینی کرد ارتقا تاب‌آوری اقتصادی و میزان دسترسی کشورها به منابع طبیعی می‌تواند اثرات تحریم را در کشورهای هدف تحت‌تأثیر قرار دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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