نااطمینانی اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری در ایران: شواهدی از آثار نامتقارن

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

2 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

10.22034/jepr.2025.144167.1289

چکیده

سرمایه‌گذاری به‌عنوان موتور محرک رشد اقتصادی، نقشی حیاتی ایفا می‌کند، اما اقتصاد ایران طی سال‌های اخیر شاهد روند نزولی آن بوده‌است. نااطمینانی اقتصادی، به‌ویژه در شرایط تحریم و بی‌ثباتی سیاسی، یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل کاهش انگیزه‌های سرمایه‌گذاری در اقتصادهای درحال‌توسعه است. این مطالعه به تحلیل نامتقارن تأثیر نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر سرمایه‌گذاری در ایران می‌پردازد و برای دستیابی به این هدف، از شاخص نوین «جستجوهای مرتبط با نااطمینانی اقتصادی» بهره می‌گیرد. این شاخص که بر پایه داده‌های جستجوی اینترنتی طراحی شده، بازتابی کمّی از بی‌ثباتی‌های ساختاری و ادواری اقتصاد ایران طی دو دهه اخیر ارائه می‌دهد و به‌طور معناداری با نقاط عطف تاریخی تشدید نااطمینانی (مانند تحریم‌ها، شوک‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی) همخوانی دارد. با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های فصلی (1402-1388) و رویکرد خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL)، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که سرمایه‌گذاری از حساسیتی نامتقارن برخوردار است که به شکل واکنش شدید به افزایش نااطمینانی اقتصادی (با اثر منفی معنادار) و بی‌تفاوتی نسبی به کاهش آن (با ضریب غیرمعنادار) تجلی می‌یابد. همچنین، رشد اقتصادی تأثیری مثبت بر سرمایه‌گذاری دارد و نرخ بهره نیز تأثیری نامتقارن از خود نشان داده است. مزیت متمایزکننده این پژوهش، استفاده از روش‌شناسی NARDL برای شناسایی آثار نامتقارن و شاخص نوین نااطمینانی اقتصادی است که امکان تحلیل واقع‌گرایانه‌تری از رفتار سرمایه‌گذاری در شرایط بی‌ثباتی را فراهم می‌کند.

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